CitizenAnalyst
March CPI: Back on the Right Track
March headline and core CPI rose 0.1% and 0.4% respectively, month over month, generally in-line with expectations of 0.2% and 0.4%,...
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CitizenAnalyst
Mar 14, 2023
Feb. CPI - A Glass Half Full, Half Empty Report
February CPI gave us both positives and negatives to digest, but on balance, this is a modestly better than expected report. Core CPI...
CitizenAnalyst
Feb 15, 2023
January CPI: Three Steps Forward, One Step Back? Or Something Different?
January CPI came in as expected, but under the hood, things looked much worse. Headline CPI (which includes Food & Energy prices)...
CitizenAnalyst
Feb 7, 2023
Labor Market Update Post January Jobs Report: Part 1
Friday’s Jobs report was the latest whiplash in an economy that continues to perplex. Just when datapoints were starting to accumulate...
CitizenAnalyst
Jan 13, 2023
December CPI: Are we already at the Fed's 2% inflation target?
December headline and core CPI came in largely in-line with expectations (-0.1% month-over-month, seasonally adjusted for headline CPI,...
CitizenAnalyst
Dec 4, 2022
Labor Market Update Following November's Jobs Report
This past week’s November jobs report from the BLS caught many by surprise, with the number of new jobs created in November (263,000,...
CitizenAnalyst
Nov 11, 2022
October Surprise CPI: Another Headfake or the Start of a Better Trend?
October CPI finally started showing some of the lower inflation we had been talking about being "in the pipeline" over the last several...
CitizenAnalyst
Oct 13, 2022
September CPI Analysis: Not as Rotten to the Core As You'd Think?
September's CPI report this morning again came in hotter than expected, with the Core CPI increasing 0.6% month-over-month vs....
CitizenAnalyst
Oct 9, 2022
Inflation: Macro Datapoints and Company Commentary for the Week Ending 10/9
Signs of more progress in the supply chain and slowing inflation in intermediate goods and input costs this week, but demand remains...
CitizenAnalyst
Oct 6, 2022
Inflation: Macro Datapoints and Company Commentary for the Week Ending 10/2
This last week's inflation data helps substantiate two trends. First, that goods inflation is slowing faster than services. We're...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 26, 2022
Inflation: Macro Datapoints and Company Commentary for Week Ending 9/25
Below are both macro datapoints and "micro" commentary from publicly traded companies on inflation over the last week. As long as...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 25, 2022
The Runway Not Taken: Why Did Powell Change His Mind in August?
Someday down the road, whenever Jay Powell has decided to retire from his role as Chairman of the Fed, I hope someone asks him about the...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 20, 2022
14 Questions For The Fed's September Meeting Tomorrow (And Probably Every Meeting After That Too)
1) You’ve said that the clock is ticking on the window you have to get inflation back down to 2%. In most of your meetings this...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 15, 2022
Breaking Down This Week's Inflation Data - Part 2
In Part 2 of this post, we'll look at August's PPI, August's Import / Export price indices, and then inflation indications from the New...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 15, 2022
Breaking Down This Week's Inflation Data - Part 1
A slew of inflation data came out over the last several days, highlighted by the August CPI data on Tuesday. Other notable releases...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 10, 2022
The Fed's Overreliance on the Labor Market is Increasing the Odds of a Policy Mistake
Beginning with the July Fed Meeting, Fed officials admitted the economy was slowing. This was likely the major driver behind Chair...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 7, 2022
Are Credit Markets Actually Telling Us Recession is Less Likely Despite a More Hawkish Fed?
Markets are in a bizarre place right now. On the one hand, the economic data over the last month or so has generally held in and in some...
CitizenAnalyst
Sep 6, 2022
Thanks to the Financial Press, the Odds of a Fed Policy Mistake have Gone Up Dramatically
During his press conference following the Fed's meeting on July 26-27, Chair Powell stated that "as the stance of monetary policy...
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